As we await the results of the NY primary, the media is still searching for a lasting narrative. This week, I have heard the following:
1. Bernie is gaining nationally, and if he comes within single digits, NY will be a huge win.
2. Bernie cannot win the general election, although he polls higher regarding voter trust than any candidate in the field.
3. When was the last time Trump said something offensive; that is proof that his campaign is changing.
4. Cruz has no chance in NY, but in a week, he looks to win most of the midwestern and western primaries.
5. What is Kasich still doing in the race; Kasich in the race keeps both Trump and Cruz from winning.
6. Reince Priebus should resign.
7. Debbbie Wasserrman-Schultz should resign,
The campaign no one expected still surprises, and it looks like at least one, and perhaps both campaigns might go to their respective conventions undecided. That would be unprecedented in modern history. At that point, the party leaders, with various motives, both laudatory and reprehensible, might try to turn the conventions their way.
If Trump wins NY big, (count actual delegates won, not percentages), it will make it very hard for the leaders to fight his candidacy. If he gets close to the magic number, you will see party leaders grow quiet, content to hold their nose and save their own seats.
If the Clinton-Sanders fight continues, the party will be much tougher to unite after it picks a nominee. Make no mistake, the divide between Clinton supporters and the ardent supporters of Sanders have two very different visions for America. And the divide between McConnell Republicans and Trump-adherents is as wide (at least on its face) as the Grand Canyon.
California looms large- consider the ability of any candidate to bring in truly new voters and if their enthusiasm is either lasting or contagious.
This is quite a lot of fun, don't you think?